Where the New Supply Geography Is Forming

CROSSING CURRENTS

The Supply Map Is Being Redrawn.

Issue

#15

| March 22, 2026

Good evening. Brent closed Friday above $112. Diesel hit $5.07 — highest since 2022. Last night, a 48-hour ultimatum was issued for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Twenty-two allied nations backed it in a joint statement. Whatever happens next will move fast.

This issue isn't about the war. It's about where the new sourcing geography is forming while most teams are still reading headlines.

—Robyn

ENERGY: THE LONG-TERM POSITION IS STRONGER THAN THE PUMP PRICE

The EIA revised its full-year diesel forecast from $3.43 to $4.12 in a single update. That is a structural reset, not a spike. Freight contracts written at $3.50 diesel are structurally mismatched against the new baseline — and the mismatch is showing up in freight bills now.

The US entered this producing a record 13.6 million barrels per day. Over 6,000 drilling permits cleared — highest in 15 fiscal years. Venezuelan heavy crude is feeding Gulf Coast refineries. A new refinery — first in 50 years — announced for Brownsville. Jones Act waived 60 days for oil, fertilizer, and coal.

Japan signed a $56 billion energy deal with the US last week. They import 90% of their crude through Hormuz. They just bet on American supply as their long-term source.

Short-term hurts. Long-term position is the strongest in 50 years.

STEEL: INPUT COSTS ARE CLIMBING FROM TWO DIRECTIONS

Iran accounts for 11% of global semi-finished steel — billets, slabs, rebar. That supply is now disrupted, and the market is pricing in the risk before physical shortages arrive.

The deeper problem runs through natural gas. Direct Reduced Iron — the key raw material for low-carbon steelmaking — requires gas to produce. The Middle East accounts for nearly half of global merchant DRI supply. The South Pars gas field, the world's largest, was struck this week. No gas, no DRI. Electric arc furnace operators are now caught between rising energy costs and tightening feedstock. Some will shift back toward coal-heavy inputs — the same pattern Europe followed after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Domestic mills are better positioned than they have been in years — Section 232 tariffs at 50% protect the market, and demand is redirecting toward stable jurisdictions. But US capacity alone cannot absorb 11% of global semi-finished supply overnight. That gap has to be filled from somewhere, and the somewhere is already being built.

Guinea's Simandou — the world's largest untapped iron ore deposit — is ramping toward 120 million tonnes per year. Liberia is tripling output this year. The DRC signed the Washington Accords with the US in December, committing to joint mining investment. South Africa designated iron ore a pillar of its critical minerals strategy. Iron ore is not subject to Section 232, and AGOA provides duty-free access from eligible sub-Saharan countries through December 2026. That means West African ore entering US mills faces a lower tariff barrier than finished steel from almost anywhere else on earth — which is exactly why the investment is flowing there now.

SULFUR: THE CRISIS YOUR PLANTING SEASON DEPENDS ON

The Gulf accounts for 44% of global sulfur — feedstock for phosphate fertilizer. Urea at NOLA jumped 32% in one week to $683/ton. Twenty-one ships carrying ~1 million metric tons of fertilizer are stranded. Industries Qatar and SABIC declared force majeure.

Spring planting is 30 days away. A Gulf-to-Gulf-Coast vessel takes 30 days. That math does not work.

The Farm Bureau wrote the White House warning of crop shortfall. Congress is discussing a $15 billion farmer relief package attached to the war supplemental.

Tariff note:

Most fertilizer imports are exempt from Section 122 tariffs — urea, ammonium nitrate, DAP, MAP, potash all enter duty-free. Sulfur, sulfuric acid, and ammonia are the exceptions at 10% unless sourced from Canada or Mexico under USMCA. Canada supplies 72% of US sulfur imports. Tariff impact on sulfur: minimal.

QUICK HITS

Aluminum

— 20% of global supply from the Middle East, now blocked. LME at a four-year high above $3,370/ton. Section 232 sits at 50% on imports — but Canadian and domestic smelters benefit directly from that protection and are absorbing redirected demand. North American sourcing avoids the tariff entirely.

Helium

— 25%+ from Qatar, Ras Laffan complex damaged by strikes this week. Helium cools semiconductor manufacturing equipment. The CHIPS Act reshoring effort now faces a supply vulnerability nobody planned for. Domestic reserves exist in the Texas Panhandle and Kansas.

American Ag

— JBS Greeley strike is entering week two. That is 6% of US slaughter capacity offline — the first US slaughterhouse walkout in 40 years. Feedlots are holding cattle longer and paying to feed animals that cannot move to market. Layer that on top of the 75-year low in the US cattle herd, the Argentina import deal that economists and Texas ranchers agree will not move retail prices, and diesel at $5.07 on every truck moving feed and beef product. Four separate pressure points hitting the same industry at the same time.

Q2 PREP

Now through April:

Fertilizer contract coverage. Canadian sulfur inventory positions. FSC structure alignment against the EIA's new $4.12 diesel baseline. Jones Act vessel availability for coastal moves — 60-day waiver window is open.

April through May:

Steel sourcing diversification. Cape of Good Hope carrier relationships for any Asia-origin freight. Aluminum supplier conversations with North American smelters absorbing redirected Gulf demand.

May through June:

Structural supply chain review ahead of Q3. New supplier qualification timelines. The tariff landscape — Section 232 at 50% on steel and aluminum, AGOA through December, fertilizer exemptions holding — is stable enough to plan around. The commodity landscape is not.

BOTTOM LINE

The global supply map is not being temporarily rerouted. It is being structurally redrawn — North American energy, Canadian sulfur and aluminum, West African iron ore feeding domestic mills, and domestic ag under compound pressure that will not resolve in one season. These are not emergency patches. They are the corridors and conditions that will define trade through the end of this decade.

The companies that come out ahead will not be the ones that moved fastest. They will be the ones that moved first. Every sourcing shift described in this issue requires people to execute it — and workforce is the constraint nobody is pricing in yet.

Next week:

Steve Petrie of WTA Energy — 122 countries of freight forwarding — on what the Middle East disruption looks like from the operator's seat.

If this was useful, forward it to someone on your team who makes sourcing or logistics decisions. They will thank you in Q2.

Rural Exports LLC works with execution partners across energy, agriculture, industrial, and aerospace logistics in the US, UK, Europe, South Africa, and Asia. If your supply chain runs through any corridor mentioned in this issue, that is the work we do.

Robyn Martin | Rural Exports LLC | Sulphur Springs, TX

ruralexports.net

Sources:

EIA STEO (March 10) · Rigzone · CNN · Fortune · Bloomberg · Sandstone Group · Fox News · AAA Fuel Prices · Wood Mackenzie · SolarQuarter · EUROMETAL · World Economic Forum · African Mining Week · Zawya · Global Market Insights · IntelliNews · CSIS · FinancialContent · CNBC · American Farm Bureau Federation · The White House · Argus Media · Fastmarkets · Heatmap News · CBP Section 232 FAQs ·

Congress.gov

AGOA/Section 232 Reports · Farm Policy News ·

Exchange-rates.org

· ECB

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