The Tariff Picture, Plainly Stated
Crossing Currents — Issue
#24
May 17, 2026 · Sunday Edition
Good morning. Two weeks ago, the market story was about a quiet Q2. Last week, it became about courts. On May 7th, the Court of International Trade ruled against the 10% Section 122 surcharge — but limited relief to three plaintiffs only. The Federal Circuit issued a temporary administrative stay on May 8th. Collections continue. The administration has already appealed and is expected to move replacement tariffs forward under Section 301 before the July 24 statutory expiration of Section 122. Under all that, the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, Cape routing is still dominant, and procurement teams are doing their Q3 planning with one eye on the courts and one eye on June's WASDE report.
—Robyn
The court timeline matters because most coverage is making this harder to follow than it needs to be. Here's the operational version.
February 20, 2026
— Supreme Court rules on IEEPA tariffs. Section 122 invoked the same day. 10% global surcharge, effective February 24, 150-day statutory limit.
May 7, 2026
— CIT issues a 2-1 ruling on Section 122. Injunction limited to three plaintiffs only (Burlap & Barrel, Basic Fun, State of Washington). No nationwide relief granted.
May 8, 2026
— Federal Circuit issues a temporary administrative stay. Government appeals. CBP continues collecting.
July 24, 2026
— Section 122 expires by statute unless Congress extends. Statutory cap is 15%.
What this means operationally, in plain English: if you are not one of three named plaintiffs, you are still paying the 10% surcharge today and you will continue paying it. Refunds are not on the table for non-plaintiffs at this point. The USTR has Section 301 investigations running on up to 60 countries — that work is moving forward and is expected to produce the replacement tariff framework before July 24.
Section 232 tariffs (steel, aluminum, automobiles, copper, lumber, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals) and Section 301 tariffs on Chinese-origin goods are unaffected. Those continue regardless of the Section 122 outcome.
The takeaway for procurement teams: plan on tariffs continuing in some form. The legal vehicle is being rebuilt around them, not removed.
Operations Watch
The May Day blanked sailing wave removed roughly a quarter of TPEB capacity from the system. Average TPEB deployment for late April through mid-May sat at 82% — among the lowest readings since post-Lunar New Year. Carriers are not chasing volume. They are protecting margin.
Three points to watch for the next four weeks:
Qingdao vessel waits.
Currently running about four days. This is the bottleneck most likely to ripple into US East Coast arrivals through June.
Rotterdam and Hamburg yard utilization.
Both sitting at 80–89%. Not crisis level, but enough to extend dwell times if any vessel cluster arrives off-window.
June deployment ramp-up.
Capacity is projected to climb toward 90% across PSW, PNW, and East Coast/Gulf gateways. If demand stays soft, that ramp creates conditions for rate softening in late June. If demand surprises upward on July tariff anticipation, the opposite.
The NRF projects level US ocean import volumes through June with a 5% increase forecast starting in July as peak season demand reawakens. Year-to-date through August would still run 3% below the same period last year — a soft year, not a collapse.
The signal hidden in that projection: shippers are not frontloading ahead of the July tariff deadline. Most procurement teams are waiting to see what survives the next court round before pulling forward inventory. That restraint is holding May–June volumes flat. It also makes July a question mark.
Agriculture & Commodity Intel
The USDA's May 12 WASDE report shifted the ag outlook in ways that touch directly on export logistics planning.
Wheat:
2026/27 production projected at 1.561 billion bushels — the lowest since 1972. Down 424 million bushels from last year on reduced harvested area and 5.8 bushels-per-acre lower yield. Hard Red Winter production down 25%. Wheat export sales for the week ending May 7 came in at 133,500 tons — up 33% from the four-week average — but the structural picture for the new marketing year is tight supplies, lower exports, smaller stocks.
Corn:
2026/27 projected at 15.995 billion bushels — second-largest crop in history. Total use forecast down 2%. Corn export sales for the week ending May 7 dropped 50% week-over-week and 52% from the four-week average. Mexico (largest buyer for new crop) and the Philippines remain the consistent destinations.
Soybeans:
2026/27 projected at 4.435 billion bushels, second-largest ever. Soybean export sales fell to a marketing year low for the second consecutive week. China is buying routinely, not aggressively. Soybean crush demand for biofuel feedstock remains strong even where bean exports are soft.
What this means for ag freight coordination: the export commodities most needing logistics support in Q3 will be wheat (where tight supply meets export demand) and soybean meal (crush-driven). Corn export volume will be lower in absolute terms — the logistics conversation shifts toward Mexico and the Philippines rather than China.
The June 11 WASDE is the next data point.
Procurement Intel
Three moves worth pressure-testing this week:
Reassess your port routing defaults.
Long Beach and Los Angeles remain the largest gateways by volume, but Portland (+44.1% YoY on a small base), Virginia (+10.0%), Vancouver BC (+9.7%), and Houston (+7.5%) posted the strongest March inbound TEU growth. Q2 is the window to test alternatives while dwell profiles favor it. By Q3 the conversation is closed.
Confirm Cape routing assumptions in your transit time models.
Asia–Europe and Asia–USEC services are still adding 10–14 days versus pre-Houthi Suez routings. If your inventory model still assumes Suez, you're under-buffering. If your contract with a freight forwarder references Suez transit times, you're under-protected.
Track your Section 122 exposure.
Even if you are not a named plaintiff, document everything. Track entry documentation, post-summary correction deadlines, and protest filing windows. The legal landscape may shift again at the appellate level. Refunds for non-plaintiffs are not currently available, but preserving your documentation costs nothing and protects optionality.
Lock fuel surcharge methodology in writing.
Diesel availability — not just price — is the real risk vector while the Strait stays closed. Procurement teams with written carrier commitments on fuel surcharge methodology are better positioned than those operating on monthly notice.
The 11 June ECB decision is the meaningful event ahead. Markets are pricing an 86% probability of a 25bp hike, which would push EUR/GBP toward 0.87–0.88. The ECB has held at 2.00% since June 2025. The Bank of England is expected to hold at 3.75% through Q3.
For US buyers paying European suppliers in Euros, the June 11 decision matters if you don't have forward cover. UK-origin pricing into the US has held its competitive edge through the soft sterling period and is worth a fresh look if your supplier mix is heavy on continental Europe.
For shippers with Q3 commitments to European suppliers, this is the week to talk to your treasury team about forward contracts before the June meeting.
While we wait on the results from the Beijing- US meeting, I reverted back to a more comprehensive newsletter template.
Bottom Line
The market is in a strange position: volumes soft, rates climbing, capacity managed, courts active, tariffs continuing, and a closed Strait still absorbing fleet capacity that would otherwise pressure rates downward. The "quiet Q2" narrative is wrong. Carriers are running this market, not the shippers.
Tactically, that means:
Book Europe-origin US-inbound freight before the next surcharge round
Pressure-test secondary East Coast and Gulf gateways while dwell profiles favor it
Track Section 122 exposure and preserve documentation
Talk to treasury about June 11 ECB exposure before the meeting
Reassess Q3 ag export commitments after June 11 WASDE
Get fuel surcharge methodology in writing
Steady markets still require attention. The quiet ones especially.
Sources
Ocean Freight & Capacity:
Freightos Baltic Index Weekly Update (May 12, 2026); Drewry World Container Index (May 14, 2026); SeaVantage Ocean Freight Market Update (May 2026); C.H. Robinson Freight Market Update (May 2026); NRF Global Port Tracker (May 2026).
Tariffs & Trade Policy:
U.S. Court of International Trade,
State of Oregon v. Trump
and
Burlap and Barrel, Inc. v. Trump
, Slip Op. 26-47 (May 7, 2026); Federal Circuit Court of Appeals administrative stay (May 8, 2026); Proclamation 11012 (February 20, 2026); USTR Section 301 Investigation Notices (March–May 2026).
Agriculture & Commodities:
USDA WASDE Report (May 12, 2026); USDA FAS Weekly Export Sales Report (May 14, 2026).
Currency:
European Central Bank reference rates (May 15, 2026); Bloomberg EUR/GBP spot data (May 15, 2026)
Crossing Currents is a weekly transatlantic trade intelligence brief for procurement teams, operations leaders, and freight buyers managing international shipments. Written by Robyn Martin, Founder of Rural Exports LLC. For coordination support on the lanes covered in this issue,
book a 15-minute call
.
A note on last week: for those who saw the rare earth corridor piece published Thursday night — that was a deeper dive into the Africa side of a story most coverage was missing. It's on my LinkedIn profile under the article archive. Crossing Currents stays focused on transatlantic operations, but the standalone pieces show up when a story doesn't fit the weekly format.