LNY Final Week — When Approvals Define Lead Times More Than Suppliers
Crossing Currents - Issue
#7
January 18, 2026
Happy Sunday — hope you had a good week. This one's packed: Red Sea developments, LNY final countdown, and a guest contribution from Thomas Raymann that'll make you rethink what "supply chain resilience" actually means. Grab your coffee. -Robyn
Just over four weeks until Lunar New Year factory closures. Teams coordinating Asia-origin freight are now in the final booking window — rates have stabilized after early January spikes, lead times are compressed, and flexibility is shrinking daily.
Transpacific rates have stabilized around $2,750–$2,760/FEU to the West Coast and ~$4,000–$4,030/FEU to the East Coast, with some forwarders reporting selective discounts as space lingers despite LNY demand.
The teams scrambling now aren't the ones who missed capacity — they're the ones who missed the coordination window.
Booking requires more than finding space; it requires sequenced approvals, confirmed documentation, and aligned internal decision-making before carriers will hold slots.
Lunar New Year factories officially close February 15–23, 2026 (Year of the Horse), but many wind down 1–2 weeks early and don't resume until mid-March — making this the final week to lock sequenced approvals, docs, and slots before the multi-week blackout hits.
Meanwhile, transatlantic markets remain stable with readily available capacity. European manufacturers coordinating Q1 shipments to the U.S. continue working under predictable conditions while Pacific shippers face final pre-holiday pressure.
If you're still finalizing Asia bookings this week, the constraint isn't availability — it's internal coordination speed.
Space remains widely available on transatlantic westbound lanes. U.S. export demand stays soft as European inventories remain largely replenished from earlier stockpiling. A weaker U.S. dollar and the absence of counter-tariffs on U.S. goods continue to support steady export demand.
Operations Watch
Pacific pre-holiday pressure, Atlantic stability:
Transpacific rates climbed more than 30% from mid-December levels through early January, driven by Lunar New Year demand and carrier GRIs. This week, prices have stabilized around $2,750–$2,760/FEU to the West Coast and ~$4,000–$4,030/FEU to the East Coast. Recent
Drewry WCI
shows a 4% weekly drop to $2,445/FEU, signaling potential easing if volumes stay soft post-spike.
Volumes remain projected at 10% below 2025 levels despite rate increases — retail inventories stay elevated from earlier frontloading.
NRF
projects January volumes up 6% m/m (first increase since July), but still 5% below last January.
The key operational distinction: Pacific shippers face rate volatility AND compressed coordination windows. Transatlantic shippers have time to sequence approvals, documentation, and booking decisions properly.
Red Sea / Suez Canal — Major Development This Week:
This week marked a significant turning point in the Red Sea shipping crisis. On January 15, 2026,
Maersk announced a service-level return
to the trans-Suez route for its MECL service connecting the Middle East and India with the US East Coast. The first westbound sailing under the revised routing was the Cornelia Maersk, departing Jebel Ali on January 15. This follows successful trial transits of the Maersk Sebarok in December and Maersk Denver on January 11-12.
CMA CGM
has also resumed scheduled Suez transits. The CMA CGM Verdi completed the first full INDAMEX service loop via Suez, sailing from Karachi to New York on January 15. The restored routing cuts the full loop transit time by two weeks, bringing it down to 77 days compared with the longer Cape of Good Hope diversion.
Analysts at
Xeneta
note that Maersk has been "the most risk-averse out of the major carriers regarding a return to the Red Sea," making this announcement a turning point. However, Hapag-Lloyd has not yet committed to schedule adjustments and continues to monitor conditions closely.
Impact assessment:
Analysts estimate this could free up approximately 6–8% of effective global container capacity, placing downward pressure on freight rates.
Sea-Intelligence
projects 3-5 months for full schedule reinstatement, with potential congestion at European hubs as vessels bunch up and carriers adjust sailing schedules.
For transatlantic operations:
Direct North Atlantic crossings remain unaffected by Red Sea routing dynamics — European manufacturers coordinating Q1 shipments continue working under stable, predictable conditions.
For Q1 transatlantic freight, the advantage isn't just stable rates — it's having the coordination window to do things right the first time.
This Week's Industry Snapshot: Aerospace
Thomas Raymann's aerospace experience reveals something every operations team faces:
when lead times extend, the bottleneck is rarely the supplier — it's the approval process between decision and execution.
In highly regulated industries like aerospace and defense, this is obvious. ITAR controls, export licenses, and government sign-offs add months to procurement timelines. But the same dynamic plays out in commercial freight: customs documentation delays, compliance reviews, internal authorization sequences, and stakeholder alignment often take longer than the actual shipment.
The teams that feel this first are operators and program managers — not procurement, not leadership.
They're the ones watching deadlines slip while waiting for approvals that should have started weeks earlier.
Thomas's contribution below illustrates what happens when coordination gaps meet regulatory complexity. The lessons apply far beyond aerospace.
EXPERT INSIGHT: Supply Chain Resilience in Aerospace & Defense
Thomas Raymann - I get things done
Head of Supply Chain | Industry, Defense & Aviation Supply Chain Executive
I've spent over 30 years in industry, aircraft MRO, and defense procurement. Long enough to remember when globalization meant you could travel by rail from Berlin to Baghdad with a simple ticket — when a crate could ship from London to Central Africa with little more than a shipping manifest. No export control matrix, no sanctions screening, no compliance officer losing sleep over paint on a bracket.
Those days are gone.
For procurement teams coordinating complex shipments today, resilience no longer means "have a backup supplier." It means understanding that the simplest problem can trigger the largest disruption, often for reasons that have nothing to do with capacity, price, or quality.
What has structurally changed:
Lead times for critical aviation and defense parts are longer and less predictable — not because factories can't produce, but because approvals can't move. Supplier consolidation has reduced optionality. In defense components especially, you don't switch suppliers — you negotiate permissions.
ITAR and export controls have evolved from compliance frameworks into operational bottlenecks. They now shape schedules, not just contracts. Post-COVID realities persist: buffers are permanent, transparency is partial, and trust matters more than cost curves.
Having outsourced manufacturing capacity globally in previous decades with limited domestic alternatives in 2026 is a lesson that even now is only slowly dawning on many executives trying to untangle yesterday's pursuit of cost optimization.
Two European case studies illustrate this better than any white paper:
Case Study 1: Administrative Gaps
During a period of significant administrative disruption within U.S. export approval processes, large parts of the State Department experienced operational constraints. For Switzerland, this meant that for 14 months we could not procure spare parts for Swiss Air Force F/A-18s — not due to sanctions or politics, but because there were insufficient personnel available to process foreign sales approvals for MRO parts.
A simple pneumatic pipe became a bureaucratic odyssey involving multiple manufacturers, government agencies across countries, and defense procurement offices. The simplest problems turn out to be the most complex.
Case Study 2: The Paint Jar
Swiss F/A-18s deployed for supersonic training were hit by a hailstorm in Spain. Structural panels needed replacement. Military stocks were unavailable due to active operations elsewhere. Parts were sourced in Europe successfully — until a small aluminum air-intake frame arrived unpainted.
Painting required certified paint from the original equipment manufacturer. Ordering the paint triggered a three-month, multi-agency ITAR process. When it finally arrived, authorities urgently informed us that only a qualified U.S. citizen could open the container — proprietary, export-controlled coating technology involved. The entire approval process restarted to arrange for a qualified technician to fly in and apply the coating.
One jet grounded. One container of paint standing unopened on a desk for months. A federal-scale archive of paperwork to store for 10 years.
The takeaway:
Resilience today is about anticipating absurdity. Map approvals, not just suppliers. Identify "trivial" items with regulatory gravity. Build relationships across OEMs and government authorities before you need them.
Logistics has never been so sophisticated — or so fragile — and at times, so absurd.
Thomas Raymann is a global supply chain executive with 30+ years of experience in aerospace, defense, and industrial operations. He specializes in navigating regulatory complexity and operational risk in highly controlled supply chains.
Procurement Intel
Suez Canal transition phase:
Traffic through the Suez Canal remains approximately 60% below October 2023 levels, but momentum is shifting.
Xeneta data
shows only 120 containerships transited the Suez Canal in November 2025, compared with 583 in October 2023 before Houthi attacks escalated. This week's service-level returns by Maersk and CMA CGM signal a potential inflection point.
Suez Canal Authority Chairman Admiral Ossama Rabiee predicts normal traffic rates by the second half of 2026. However, the transition period will bring its own challenges — vessel bunching at European transshipment hubs, schedule adjustments, and temporary congestion as carriers resync routes.
For teams coordinating transatlantic freight, this creates potential delays for cargo requiring European transshipment — but direct North Atlantic services remain unaffected.
The operational question isn't "will Suez reopen?" — it's "does your freight route through a European hub that could see temporary congestion?"
U.S. inland capacity:
Domestic transportation capacity continues tightening as smaller shipments shift back to LTL markets from truckload. Rail and equipment constraints persist at major gateway ports, particularly for repositioning empty containers back to Asia ahead of LNY demand.
Teams coordinating inbound European freight to interior U.S. destinations should factor extended inland transit times into Q1 planning — particularly for cargo arriving at congested East Coast ports. This is a coordination conversation to have now, not when the container clears customs.
Upcoming Trade Shows: Q1/Q2 Planning Windows
RILA LINK
— Feb 1-4, Orlando: Retail/grocery supply chain execs on execution and replenishment. Ideal for consumer goods teams frontloading post-LNY.
Manifest Vegas
— Feb 9-11, Las Vegas: Fortune 500 supply chain leaders and logistics tech. Prime for scouting tools to ease rural bottlenecks.
TPM26
— March 1-4, Long Beach: Ocean contracting, ports, reliability. Must-attend for transpacific planning after holiday closures.
LogiMAT
— March 24-26, Stuttgart: Europe's top intralogistics fair. Strong transatlantic tie-in for EU manufacturers shipping to U.S.
Planning exhibit freight or specialized equipment shipments? Coordination bottlenecks hit hardest around events — reach out before the rush.
The euro slipped to ~$1.16 this week, its weakest level in over a month, as investors weighed Eurozone economic data against stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales. Germany's economy grew 0.2% in 2025, ending a two-year contraction, though weakness in manufacturing keeps the outlook fragile. ECB member François Villeroy de Galhau called expectations of an ECB rate hike in 2026 "fanciful."
For U.S. importers buying from Europe, the stronger dollar means improved purchasing power when converting payment obligations.
For European manufacturers coordinating Q1 shipments to the U.S., currency movements + coordination complexity = reason to lock pricing and approvals early, not wait for "better timing."
If you're coordinating large-value equipment purchases or recurring supply agreements from Europe, now is the window to lock in favorable exchange dynamics while keeping Q1 timelines intact.
Industry Intelligence
🚢
Maersk Returns MECL Service to Suez Route
Danish carrier resumes trans-Suez routing for Middle East-India-US East Coast service following successful trial transits, cutting two weeks off loop time. Read →
Maersk Announcement
📈
Freightos: Pre-LNY Rates Holding Steady
Transpacific pricing stabilized this week around $2,750/FEU westbound as carriers report selective discounting despite holiday demand. Read →
Freightos Weekly Update
📊
C.H. Robinson January Market Update
Transatlantic export space remains available; pre-LNY surge guidance issued; carrier blank sailing programs continue into Q1. Read →
C.H. Robinson Ocean Freight
📉
Drewry WCI Drops 4% This Week
Global composite index fell to $2,445/FEU as Shanghai-LA and Shanghai-NY rates soften amid volume uncertainty. Read →
Drewry World Container Index
🌍
Dimerco: Red Sea Uncertainty Persists
Capacity growth uneven across trade lanes; transpacific down 2.9% while transatlantic increased significantly as carriers reposition fleets. Read →
Dimerco Analysis
Bottom Line
Most teams think they have a supplier problem. They actually have a coordination problem.
When lead times extend, operators and program managers feel it first — long before procurement or leadership see the delays. They're the ones watching deadlines slip while waiting for internal approvals, export licenses, compliance reviews, or stakeholder sign-offs that should have started weeks earlier.
Thomas Raymann's aerospace case studies show this at its most extreme: a pneumatic pipe stalled for 14 months, a paint jar grounded a jet for months. But the same dynamic plays out in commercial freight every day — and hits rural manufacturers hardest, where a load sitting at port waiting on approvals can shut down a branch production line. Teams blame capacity, rates, or carrier performance when the actual bottleneck is administrative sequencing — the gap between "we need to ship this" and "we have authorization to book it."
Ask yourself these questions:
When freight slips, is it because the carrier couldn't move it — or because approvals weren't sequenced properly?
Who in your organization owns export compliance vs. booking authority, and do they talk to each other early enough?
When something urgent comes up, do you have a single coordinator who can navigate approvals, documentation, and carrier booking simultaneously — or do you coordinate those steps separately?
The teams that outperform aren't the ones with better suppliers.
They're the ones who map approval pathways before freight needs to move, build relationships with coordinators who understand regulatory friction, and start internal coordination early enough that external execution stays simple.
For transatlantic freight, this advantage is especially pronounced right now. Stable capacity, predictable transit times, and direct North Atlantic routing create the coordination window that Pacific markets no longer offer. But that window only matters if you use it — if you're aligning stakeholders, confirming documentation, and locking Q1 capacity this week instead of waiting for "better timing."
If this feels familiar, it's usually a coordination issue — not a carrier one.
Need help coordinating Q1 transatlantic shipments?
If you're coordinating EU-US freight (tight timelines, regulatory complexity, or specialized equipment), Rural Logistics provides freight coordination with focus on transatlantic reliability.
Services:
Freight Coordination:
EU ↔ US ocean & air freight
Specialized Logistics:
High-value equipment, trade shows, project freight
Contact:
robynm@rural-logistics.com
(945) 403-1407
Newsletter:
Subscribe to Crossing Currents
for weekly transatlantic freight intelligence.
Paid Intelligence:
Load Leverage subscribers receive deeper freight market analysis, playbooks, and procurement strategy guidance. Learn more at
rural-logistics.com
.
Disclaimer: This newsletter provides market intelligence and operational guidance. It does not constitute financial, legal, or procurement advice. Freight rates, transit times, and market conditions are subject to change. Always verify current conditions with your logistics provider before making shipping decisions.
© 2026 Rural Logistics. All rights reserved.